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UNC Betting Analysis
The Tar Heels come into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak after taking down Miami 75-71 on Monday. All-American candidate RJ Davis put the team on his back, erupting for a career-high 42 points while breaking the Dean Smith Center scoring record. It was a vintage performance from the senior guard who leads the ACC at 21.7 points per game.
Davis has caught fire down the stretch, averaging 29.3 points over his last three contests. He’s developed into an elite shot creator and knockdown three-point shooter, hitting 44.4% from deep in ACC play. The Wolfpack rank 268th nationally defending the three, so expect Davis to stay hot on Saturday.
RJ Davis balled out tonight 🔥
His 42 points broke the Dean Dome record set by Tyler Hansbrough 🐏
NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB)
While Davis went off against Miami, North Carolina’s supporting cast was quiet. Armando Bacot was saddled with foul trouble and finished with just nine points in 22 minutes. The Tar Heels will need more from their double-double machine and ACC Player of the Year candidate versus an NC State frontcourt that held him to nine points in their first meeting.
Wingman Leaky Black is questionable after missing the last two games with an injury. His defensive versatility would be valuable against an NC State team that starts four capable perimeter scorers. Freshman guard Seth Trimble and junior forward Puff Johnson have stepped up nicely in his absence.
We’re so lucky to have a guy that plays defense like Seth Trimble.
Tar Heels of NYC (@TarHeelsofNYC)
North Carolina remains one of the top offensive and rebounding teams nationally, ranking 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 7th in offensive rebounding rate. Their uptempo attack puts pressure on opponents, especially at home where they average over 81 points per game.
Defensively, the Heels have been solid if unspectacular, ranking 55th in adjusted efficiency. They defend the interior well but can be vulnerable against teams that shoot the three efficiently.
NC State Betting Analysis
The Wolfpack have struggled in ACC play after a strong non-conference start. They’ve dropped four of six games including an ugly 90-83 loss at Florida State last time out. NC State sits squarely on the bubble with a NET ranking of 80th, likely needing to win out or make a run in the ACC Tournament to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
Guard DJ Horne continues to pace the Wolfpack offense at 17.5 points per game while shooting 43% from three. Forwards Jarkel Joiner and Casey Morsell can also fill it up, giving NC State a versatile perimeter attack. The Pack average right around 77 points per game but only shot 27% as a team when they hosted UNC in early January.
Low post scorer DJ Burns keys the offense inside at 12 points and seven rebounds a night. His battle down low with Bacot will be a pivotal matchup. Burns was held scoreless in 22 minutes during the team’s previous meeting.
While the offense has firepower, defense remains an issue for NC State. They allow over 72 points per contest and rank 188th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Quick guards have given them problems all year, which spells trouble against a fast UNC backcourt.
In their lone matchup this season, North Carolina dominated on the glass and defensively in a 67-54 road win. The Tar Heels held a decisive 54-30 edge in rebounding. Harrison Ingram pulled down 19 boards himself for UNC. If NC State can’t keep the Heels off the offensive glass and get stops, it’ll be another long night for the Pack in Chapel Hill.
NC State vs UNC Matchup Stats
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